Uncertainty Analysis
Quantification of uncertainty in GHG emission estimates following IPCC guidelines at the 95% confidence interval
Overall Inventory Uncertainty (Level)
+/- 8.4%
95% confidence interval
Trend Uncertainty
+/- 4.8%
Year-on-year change
Method
IPCC Approach 1
Propagation of errors
| Sector | Category | Emissions (Gg CO2eq) | AD Uncertainty (%) | EF Uncertainty (%) | Combined (%) | Sensitivity | Key? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | Energy Industries - Fuel Combustion 1.A.1 | 39,180 | +/- 5 | +/- 7 | +/- 8.6 | 35.2% | Key |
| Energy | Transport - Road 1.A.3 | 14,050 | +/- 8 | +/- 5 | +/- 9.4 | 13.8% | Key |
| Agriculture | Enteric Fermentation 3.A | 11,190 | +/- 10 | +/- 30 | +/- 31.6 | 18.4% | Key |
| IPPU | Cement Production 2.A.1 | 7,770 | +/- 5 | +/- 10 | +/- 11.2 | 8.5% | Key |
| LULUCF | Forest Land 4.A | 6,660 | +/- 30 | +/- 50 | +/- 58.3 | 10.1% | Key |
| Energy | Manufacturing Industries 1.A.2 | 4,710 | +/- 5 | +/- 7 | +/- 8.6 | 4.2% | Key |
| Agriculture | Agricultural Soils (N2O) 3.D | 3,510 | +/- 50 | +/- 100 | +/- 111.8 | 9.2% | Key |
| Waste | Solid Waste Disposal 5.A | 2,220 | +/- 30 | +/- 40 | +/- 50.0 | 6.5% | - |
| Energy | Oil & Natural Gas Fugitive 1.B.2 | 1,660 | +/- 20 | +/- 50 | +/- 53.9 | 4.7% | - |
| Agriculture | Rice Cultivation (CH4) 3.C | 1,110 | +/- 20 | +/- 40 | +/- 44.7 | 2.6% | - |
Overall Inventory Uncertainty Result
Calculated as: U_total = sqrt( sum( (U_i x E_i / E_total)^2 ) ) for all categories
+/- 8.4%
at 95% confidence
Methodology: IPCC Approach 1 - Propagation of Errors
Uncertainty is estimated using IPCC Approach 1 (error propagation), combining activity data (AD) and emission factor (EF) uncertainties at the 95% confidence interval. The combined uncertainty for each category is calculated using the equation: U_combined = sqrt(U_AD^2 + U_EF^2). The overall inventory uncertainty is then derived by weighting each category's combined uncertainty by its share of total emissions. Sensitivity analysis identifies which categories contribute most to overall uncertainty, guiding improvement priorities. Reference: 2006 IPCC Guidelines, Volume 1, Chapter 3.